Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts

Friday, May 24, 2013

2013 NFL ROOKIE RUNNING BACK RANKINGS

photo credit: isportsweb.com


Josh Inglis
Thursday, May 23rd 2013
@B2BSJinglis


26 Running backs were chosen this year at the 2013 NFL draft. The difference between the first player selected (Giovani Bernard 37th) and the last player (Michael Cox 253rd) is very obvious. Bernard is expected to be in a time share for Cincinnati this year and he projects to take over in 2014 and Cox projects to be a practice squad attendee.  There are chances, all be them small ones,  to find fantasy production even in the later rounds of the draft.  Just because you don't have a top pick doesn't mean you can't find a running back that will give you a top 24 return.

In 2012 Alfred Morris was taken in the 6th round by the Redskins. Then back track all the way to 2007 and Ahmad Bradshaw was the last running back taken at pick 250.

Alright I am going to confess something to you.  I thought I would have been able to find more talented running backs that were drafted late to help prove my point but I seem to have been mistaken. That blew up in my face somewhat and I am too proud to delete those last sentences.  So let's change our point of view here.

Take two.

It's important to hit on the talented backs that were drafted in the early and mid-rounds in order to add to your fantasy roster.  Yes,  I am aware that Arian Foster was undrafted but if your plan is to find the next Foster well that's just wishful thinking.

The theme in this year's draft seems to be that the more talented runners have landed in crowded back fields while the mediocre talents have an easier chance at getting the ball. The rankings are based on how I would choose my players in a rookie only draft.   Read it, dissect it, argue it or forget about it. It's your choice.

Rookie Quarterback Rankings HERE

*the numbers inside the parenthesis represent the players' current ADP (Average Draft Position)

(rookie draft ADP/ Dynasty Start Up ADP/ Redraft ADP)



TIER 1
 
1. Le’Veon Bell PIT (4.9/15.7/111)

Bell might not be the most talented back in this year's draft class, but his situation couldn't be more ideal for his owners. The 6'1'' 244 ilbs bowling ball from Michigan State has already been praised by Steelers' OC Todd Haley,  "..He looks like a workhorse back. He's not a guy that you'd shy away from giving it to him 30 times a game"

It's not too often you can draft a guaranteed three down back in today's NFL but the Steelers' second round pick in 2013 is the exception.  Bell has sticky hands for a man of his size.  He caught 67 balls for 434 yards in his final two years at Michigan State.  He isn't going to put up Doug Martin numbers in year one but he shouldn't have a problem totaling 1400 yards and scoring 8 to 10 times.

There isn't a safer pick at the running back position in this draft. I like Bell as a legit RB2 this year with the chance of punching into the top 12 for 2014.  With a great opportunity, an offensive system that suits his physical traits and having a coaching staff that is confident in his ability to lead the Steelers' running game, Le'Veon Bell is my number one running back in rookie drafts.
 
2. Giovani Bernard CIN (4.4/14/80)

Bernard may be in a complementary role in his first season in Cincinnati, but he has far more talent and athleticism than Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis.  However, being fed a "steady amount of screen passes" in rookie minicamp the Bengals want to get the UNC draft pick in open space and let him use his elite skills to create plays.

Bernard will most likely cede goal line carries as long as the Lawfirm is in the picture but should push him for the majority of the carries at some point in 2013.  It's very probable that this time next year we could be arguing who is a better RB1, Giovani Bernard or Matt Forte. 

If you are an owner of BJGE and have a top 3 pick, let's hope you can land Bernard.  The 37th pick in 2013 should be the man in Cincinnati for the next 5 years and if you want to own a piece of Giovani I suggest you buy him now before he impresses the fantasy community too much and it costs you more than a first rounder in order to land him. 
 
3. Montee Ball DEN (5.4/ 15.9/96)

With the possibility of starting week one for an extremely talented Bronco's offense, Ball's price is well worth it.  At first look the Denver backfield looks crowded,  but the Denver Post is reporting that the Bronco's will most likely release Willis McGahee due to his age and cost.  This move will create the opportunity to have Ball as the lead back and Ronnie Hillman as the change of pace runner.

Head coach John Fox has a reputation for not trusting rookies with the ball, but with the Wisconsin workhorse only fumbling twice in 924 college carries and being able to pass protect, Montee Ball is far ahead of most NFL rookie running backs in terms of pro readiness. He also holds the record for most all purpose touchdowns in the NCAA.

Ball is a high upside RB2 in all formats, but I can't blame an owner for drafting, Lacy, Bell or Bernard due to Ball's high mileage (almost 1000 college carries).
 
4. Eddie Lacy GB (4.8/15 /62)

Viewed by many as the top back in this year's draft, Lacy fell to the end of the second round due to the fact that teams were worried about his injury history and that he has a "fused" big toe.  Lacy is looking to prove the doubters wrong this year as he will be handed the keys to the back field in Green Bay. 

Green Bay scored the 5th most points in the NFL in 2012 while only averaging 106 rushing yards a game, good for 20th in the league. Lacy should have no problem staying in front of fellow rookie Johnathan Franklin and DuJuan Harris and is a good bet to reach 1000 yards on the ground and find the end zone possibly 8-12 times.

Lacy will be a great RB2 in year one. He is currently coming off the board as RB24 in redrafts and is being drafted, on average, as the 10th running back in dynasty start ups. Needless to say, many others also see Lacy as a future RB1. Owners of the 61st overall pick should check in on the prices of Franklin and Harris throughout the year.  If Lacy is dominating touches early in the year maybe offering a Franklin owner a 3rd round and/or a late pick for Harris is  a good idea.  I would be very happy owning the backfield of an offense as potent as Green Bay's.

TIER 2

5. Zac Stacy STL (19/35/153)

Now that Steven Jackson has departed St Louis, the running back picture has become quite murky. At the top of the ugliness are second year players Isiah Pead and Daryl Richardson. Pead has only 10 professional carries to his name and Richardson averaged 4.8 YPC on 98 carries in 2012. With only two years of NFL experience between the three players expect the back that does the best in pass protection to carve out the larger role.

Having already played in the SEC, the most difficult division in the NCAA, scouts have said that Stacy has Trent Richardson (5'11'' 224 ilbs) power in his "petit" 5'8'' 210 ilbs frame (check out that French masculine noun conjugation). He led the SEC in YPC in 2011 (5.94) ahead of Trent Richardson, Vick Ballard and Marcus Lattimore. The 160th overall pick in this year's draft is a tackle braking machine that has great vision but also has the strength to move piles. He has a real chance to be the Rams' starter at some point this year and should be a solid fantasy option in years ahead. Stacy should be a decent RB2 in 2014 with the young Rams' offense beginning to establish an identity.

6. Johnathan Franklin GB (13.8/27.3 /138)

One of the more talked about backs in this tier, Franklin could be fantasy gold or just an Eddie Lacy back up depending on who you ask. The ideal situation would be to get both of these backs, but with their ADPs in rookie drafts too near each other it looks like the only way you could accomplish that would be through a trade.

Franklin doesn't project to be an every down runner but could earn the third down role in Green Bay. He might also be the primary return man as Randall Cobb concentrates on his receiving duties.

With so many targets in the Packers' passing game and a world class quarterback don't expect Franklin to be checked down to as often as other 3rd down running backs. An easy comparison would be to Atlanta's Jacquizz Rodgers. For me, however,  the inconsistencies of a pass catching running back are too much too handle, even in PPR formats.

Lacy won't fall out of the top 7 picks and Franklin shouldn't drop out of the top 15 picks.  Honestly I would rather have Lacy at 7 than Franklin at 15. I'd prefer Zac Stacy over  Franklin but I sometimes drink too much. If Lacy is injured at all this year you should be able to trade the former Bruin for a high first round pick, a top RB2 or a low end WR1.
 
7.  Christine Michael SEA (23/37/179)

Size (5'10''), speed (4.54 forty), elusiveness, power, explosion and said to have the most talent at the running back position in this year's draft, Christine Michael is a very popular "sleeper" pick. If, it wasn't for character concerns (he did miss two interviews at the combine due to his NyQuil ingestion) he would have gone higher than the 62nd pick.

You are going to need to have a bench spot reserved for the former Aggie as Michael isn't expected to pass second year man Robert Turbin anytime soon due to the fact he can't hold his own in pass protection. If you have room on your bench to roster the Texas A&M star for the 2013 season, than the rewards for 2014 could be astronomical. He could absolutely dominate at the NFL level but he is going to have to work hard, stay out of trouble and wait patiently for his chance.

8. Marcus Lattimore SF (13.2/27.6/154)

Here is a quick rundown on Lattimore's injury history.  He suffered an ACL tear in his left knee in 2011.  He returned in 2012, a few steps slower, only to tear his right ACL, PCL and LCL in what might be the second hardest injury to watch next to Kevin Ware's leg break at the NCAA tournament this year.

Selected by the 49'ers in the 5th round of this year's draft, Lattimore will almost certainly red shirt for the entire year.  This means if you draft him in fantasy you are going to need a bench spot or an IR spot available for the whole season.  With plenty of bodies in the San Fransisco running back depth chart (Gore, Hunter, James and Dixon) the Niners will be able to bring the former Gamecock along as slowly as they please. This situation does not excite me in the least.

My opinion is that an athlete may find it difficult to return to football after almost having their leg separated from his knee joint, let alone compete at the highest level .  Call me crazy but I will not be spending a high draft pick on a player with Lattimores's injury history.

TIER 3
 
9.  Denard Robinson JAC (41/54/203)
*ranked as a WR in most formats

If you saw "shoelace" over his 4 year career at Michigan then you know this man has serious skills. He has 4.43 speed and understands football from a quarterback's point of view. Jacksonville GM Dave Caldwell says the Jaguars intend to give the former Wolverine 10 to 15 touches a game on top of returning duties. The coaching staff is willing to find ways to put the ball in his hands as they have already lined him up in the backfield at running back, as a wide receiver and under center in a wild cat package during rookie minicamp.

With MJD entering a contract year and coming off Lisfranc surgery, the 135th pick in this year's draft looks like Jones' preferred handcuff going into training camp. There is a high ceiling with this choice and with an organization starved for game changing talent Denard Robinson should receive plenty of chances to reward his fantasy owners in year one and beyond.  He is a smart pick in the bottom half of the running back ranks.

10.  Latavius Murray OAK  (48/57/213) 

Sometimes you have to choose opportunity over talent. I'm not saying Murray isn't talented, he did run a 4.38 forty at 6'2'' and 223 ilbs, but the chance to start is worth the prospective add.

I have been on both sides of the Darren Mcfadden argument. I had him in 2010 for the 1600 plus yards from scrimmage and 10 total TDs. I also had him last year where he averaged 18 carries a game for an embarrassing 3.3 YPC over a 12 game span. I will never target him until he proves he can do something to make me forget about the misery. Run DMC has only played in 71.25 % of his games over the course of his 5 year professional career.

With Mcfadden's constant absence, my money is on someone other than him starting at least one game this year for the silver and black. The Raiders' depth chart currently reads:
  1. Darren Mcfadden
  2. Rashad Jennings
  3. Latavius Murray
I'm choosing the rookie Murray to be DMC's primary backup and potential spot starter for year one. Who knows how the season ends up, but with DMC in a contract year anything could happen. The best case scenario for a  Murray owner is that he is starting in Oakland in 2014. You can't make those claims for other running backs being drafted this late.

11.  Andre Ellington ARI (34/48/177)

Although Arizona drafted Ellington 47 picks after Stepfan Taylor its Ellington who holds the most value in fantasy. Ranked as the 3rd highest running back in the draft by rotoworld's Josh Norris, the Clemson product is dangerous in the open field and offers big play ability which can't be said about the other running backs ahead of him on the depth chart.

The Cardinals O-line was the worst in football last year and it doesn't project to be any better this year, but this is a rookie draft and tangibles like O-line strength and depth chart rankings shouldn't be the main reasons why you don't select the most talented player available. Ellington was drafted at 3.05 in my rookie draft between Latavius Murray (3.03) and Joseph Randle (3.08). This is a case of talent over situation. He could see touches this year but it may take until the second half of the season. Keep an eye on him during training camp and throughout the season if he goes undrafted in your league.

12.  Mike Gillislee MIA (37/49/191)

Much like Knile Davis' situation in Kansas City, Gillislee has the chance to be the immediate back up going into training camp.  Daniel Thomas has averaged under 3.6 YPC over a large 256 carry sample size in two disappointing seasons for the fish. Thomas could lose his current backup role with a solid showing in camp by the rookie from Florida. 

With Lamar Miller having only carried the ball 51 times in his professional career, Mike Gillislee deserves a flier pick just based on Miami's uncertainty at the position.  The 164th pick in this year's draft, Gillislee has a better opportunity than most but lacks the overall skill set that will make him a fantasy commodity, but being able to pass protect as a rookie will go a long way in cementing his role as the number two running back for the Dolphins.

I like this pick as a Lamar Miller owner, or as a chance to start building the Miami backfield cheaply. I recently drafted Gillislee in my 53 man Dynasty league with pick 4.03.  Just after Denard Robinson and 7 picks before Knile Davis.  Hopefully Lamar Miller comes out flat and we can buy him on the cheap and monopolize the dolphins' running game.

13.  Joseph Randle DAL (27/45/178)

Already on the shelf due to a recent thumb surgery, Randle is another mediocre talent in a promising opportunity. Owner Jerry Jones expects him to be the primary backup for the brittle DeMarco Murray but with his inability to pass protect and having constantly seen soft defenses while at Oklahoma Ol' Jerry needs to think this one over.

Demarco Murray owners need to invest here but I feel that Randle is going too high to justify the pick. Maybe the Murray owners need to trade with the Randle owners while DeMarco Murray's stock is high (RB13 ADP in redraft)



TIER 4

14.  Stepfan Taylor ARI (40.8/53/181)

Taylor's 4.76 forty timed ranked him 27th or 33 running backs at the combine. Arizona has three other more talented runners on the roster including projected starter Rashard Mendenhall, second year man Ryan Williams and fellow rookie Andre Ellington.  To make matters worse, Arizona's offensive line is projected to be ranked 31st of 32 NFL teams by Evan Silva of rotoworld.

New coach Bruce Arians has already said he "doesn't prefer a running back by committee." and he also added he "likes guys who can play every down". If these things are true it could be very difficult for Taylor to show that he deserves a piece of the backfield pie. Being slow and buried on the depth chart are obvious reasons to look elsewhere. The ceiling is not very high on this pick and when you are choosing talent this late you should be looking for someone with high upside. That isn't Taylor.

15.  Knile Davis KCC (40.6/54.5/193)

This from an NFL scout about Knile Davis after his combine.

"He's so soft and timid. I've never seen a guy fumble like him where people just breathe on him and he drops the ball. Doesn't play to that timed speed at all (4.37). You think injuries have taken their toll, but he can still run fast so it's nothing to do with injury. On the field he just doesn't have it."
Davis also missed the entire 2011 season with a fractured ankle and then only carried the ball 112 times the following season in 2012.

Now for the good news. At 5'10'' 227 ilbs and an unofficial 4.30, the former Arkansas running back measures very well. His situation is more than ideal as he has the chance to be the immediate back up to Jamaal Charles with only herniated Shaun Draughn and 2nd year runner Cyrus Gray to beat out.

Davis has decent value as trade bait to a Charles owner but other than that he doesn't project well in the NFL. Draft him and then trade him before people realize he is only slightly better than Jackie Battle.
 
16.  Chris Thompson WAS (65/61/NA)
 
Projected as a change of pace back at best, the 5'7'' 192 ilbs fourth round draft pick is coming off an October ACL tear that makes his attendance for the start of training camp questionable. Washington Redskins coach  Mike Shanahan thinks Thompson is a first or second round talent but due to his injury, teams decided to pass on the Florida State Graduate. If the ACL tear doesn't scare you, how about a broken back in 2011?  Also he probably needs to beat out 2011 4th round Roy Helu Jr. just to secure a roster spot. Chris Thompson looks like a long shot to produce fantasy numbers in any format.  He currently went undrafted in my 12 team 53 man roster rookie draft.  But hey, Mike Shanahan has made magic happen before.  

17.  Kenjon Barner CAR (50/60/218)
 
The 182nd overall pick taken out of Oregon was added to the Panthers' mess of a backfield.  Both Jonathan Stewert and DeAngelo Williams have restructured their contracts in order to stay on the squad. 

With Wiliams entering his age 30 season and Stewart coming off a miserable and injured 2012, Kenjon Barner projects to be a third down back in the NFL at best.  He sits at 5'9'' and is currently under 200 ilbs. He might not see the field in year one due to depth problems.    

18.  Spencer Ware SEA (56/71/NA)
 
A big man at 5'10'' and 218 ilbs the Seahawks plan to use their sixth-round pick at full back and maybe short yardage.  Ware is buried heavily in the 'Hawks' depth chart.  He is behind Lynch, Turbin and fellow rookie Christine Michael at running back and he is even behind 2011 pro bowler Michael Robinson at full back.

Spencer Ware should not be owned even in NFC-only leagues.


Josh Inglis  teaches young children and has recently just realized that he doesn't have gap power at the plate.  He blogs and operates backtobacksports.com.  He currently lives in Taiwan.


Saturday, May 18, 2013

2013 NFL ROOKIE QUARTERBACK RANKINGS



bigcatcountry.com
Tyler Wilson has a chance to outperform the competition in 2013


Josh Inglis
Saturday May 18, 2018

The 2013 QB draft class is a sad group of individuals. It’s so sad that Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback coach Frank Scelfo has said that Blaine Gabbert would be the first quarterback chosen if he were in the draft this year.

There might not be a week one starter in the whole lot.  If you expected to find your franchise quarterback in this year’s group then you didn’t do your homework.

Just because there is no top end talent like RG3 or Andrew Luck, doesn’t mean that there aren’t players on this list that can’t improve your fake teams.  There might even be one or two in the group that make a significant fantasy impact down the road.  So without further adieu I present my 2013 QB Rookie Rankings.

*the numbers inside the parenthesis represent the players current ADP (Average Draft Position)
(rookie draft ADP/ Dynasty Start Up ADP/ Redraft ADP)


Quarterbacks

TIER 1
 
1. EJ Manuel BUF (20/31/174)

There’s a lot to like about EJ in Buffalo. He has a new coach who can tailor an offensive system around the strengths of his players (hello option?), the support of his GM to start in week 1, CJ spiller, 3 time 1000 yard receiver Stevie Johnson and a plethora of young receiving talent that includes USC standout Robert Woods. Before we get ahead of ourselves let’s remember that this man is a serious project and might be watching Kevin Kolb run the offense come September.  New coach Doug Marrone has already pointed out that Manuel needs to work on his footwork and mechanics.  We haven’t even seen him in a collapsing pocket yet.

On the plus side I like the fact that he is starting to build chemistry with his fellow rookie receivers Woods, Goodwin and Rogers at rookie camp.  This receiving core could surprise people this year and looking ahead, Manuel might have the ability to throw to two 1000 yard receivers in the same year.

He was ranked the 6th quarterback by Scouts Inc before the draft. The Bills cited his deep accuracy (49.2 percent of passes over 20 yards in 2012) and his ability to make plays with his arm while on the run (55.8 percent completion while on the move in 2013) as reasons for taking the former Seminole with the 16th overall pick. They believe that he can be their franchise quarterback. 

I like him as a QB 3 with great upside or a low end QB 2 in dynasty formats and will let someone else take him in a redraft.  This is not 2012 people. Don’t over value new quarterbacks because of the ridiculousness that happened last year (RG3, Luck, Wilson and Tannehill).

If he falls to you late in your rookie draft take a shot on him and maybe this year or next year, you can swap him for a higher pick or a better starter. I like him in the third round of a rookie draft.

2. Geno Smith NYJ (22/34/180)

On paper Smith looks like a bargain at 39th overall.

2012 stats
71.2 completion percentage,
42:6 TD:INT ratio
Led the nation in passing TDs with 42
Was sacked only 19 times in 13 games

So why wasn’t Geno selected earlier? Because apparently, “he fails to realize he doesn’t know everything”

When I think of Geno I think of Willie Beaman from Any Given Sunday. 

My name is Geno…………..Smith ya
I keep the ladies ………in bliss ya
And all my fans……………big ups ya
You gunna defeat me?...........Mark Sanchez

With reports out that describe Smith as being a “Diva”, “a spoiled pampered brat” and having trouble “in working through adversity” I say good luck to you in New York.  This one could end badly. How Tim Tebow made it out of New York alive is beyond me. That media is relentless.

It’s as simple as winning though.  If Mark Sanchez is released and the starting gig is handed to Geno, no one is going to care about his attitude if he is winning ball games. He will have every chance to show he deserved to be the 2nd quarterback taken in the draft. 

He has the most talent out of the 2013 QB class and could put up decent fantasy production, but looking at his supporting cast (Ivory, Holmes, Hill, Kerley) his upside is limited.  He will not be a top 10 quarterback this year and maybe never.  Also, like Manuel, feel free to draft him with a future plan to turn him into something more than you originally invested.


TIER 2

3.  Tyler Wilson OAK (46/67/230)

This is one of my favorite quarterbacks in the draft.  I’m more in love with his opportunity and toughness than his above average skill set.  Coaches love tough quarterbacks and Wilson was the toughest in the draft.  If you can’t stand in the pocket or move around and step up, you are not going to make it in the NFL (hello Blaine Gabbert). Reports are out that he has looked good at minicamp. Wilson has a chance to unseat Matt Flynn and start in week 1. 

Anytime you hear the word gunslinger associated with a quarterback, there are obvious fantasy rewards to be had. Wilson may never be a top 8 QB, but he could surprise many this year and produce fantasy numbers similar to Ben Roethlisberger or Carson Palmer in 2012.  He has enough weapons in Oak to put up 25 TD seasons and maybe go for 3800 plus yards. It may not happen this year, but sometime in the near future is a possibility. Keep an eye on Tyler Wilson during OTAs and the preseason.

4.  Zac Dysert DEN (58/181/NA)

A top 3 quarterback in some circles, Dysert fell all the way to the 234th pick in this year’s draft. The former ReHawk has a big arm and stands firm in the pocket. He could push for number 2 duties behind Peyton Manning if he can pass second year man Brock Osweiler (also someone to watch). The backup spot behind an aging and brittle quarterback and on a team as loaded offensively as the Broncos are exciting tangibles.  Dysert is a good dynasty draft pick because he realistically has a chance to lead a top 3 offense.  Manning owners need to invest and also people with quarterback youth and depth problems should jump on board.  It may take a year or two but the return on Dysert could be very profitable.

5.  Mike Glennon TB (54/73/NA)

Glennon stands at 6’7’’and has a powerful arm that is also accurate.  Ron Jaworski says he is “built like an oak tree”.  It’s also no secret that Tampa Bay is not very high on Josh Freeman and Dan Orlovsky (both only have one year left on their contracts). It’s somewhat possible that Glennon could be starting for the Bucs in 2014. 

Doug Martin, Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams give the 73rd overall pick lots of potent weapons to choose from.  The man who filled Russell Wilson’s shoes at North Carolina State is worth holding onto for a year because he might be starting in week 1 in 2014.  Glennon is a smart pick late in rookie drafts and dynasty start up drafts and has a very similar situation to Zach Dysert in Denver.  Use the wait and see approach here as the return could be exponential. Think Russell Wilson.

6.  Matt Barkley PHI (37/52/209)

When NFL guru Greg Cosell says that Mark Sanchez was a better prospect coming out of USC than Barkley, immediately his career might be in trouble.  Barkley has great grades on accuracy, intelligence and leadership but has a girl’s arm when it comes to throwing deep balls or passes outside the numbers. Guys who can’t throw deep in the NFL usually don’t project well statistically but can still win ball games.  Just ask Andy Dalton. Luckily for him however, Chip Kelly’s offense calls for short quick accurate passes and with Michael Vick holding the ball for too long, the USC grad might get a shot in the new system down the road. 

This guy is not going to lead you to any fantasy championships but you might be able to trade him to a Michael Vick owner.

TIER 3
 
7.  Ryan Nassib NYG (56/89/208)

“Borderline starting talent”, comparisons to Andy Dalton and mediocre arm strength mean one thing in the fantasy world, irrelevance. If his own College coach didn’t want to take him neither should you.  If you feel that Eli Manning needs a hand cuff, by all means take the man.  I prefer Wilson.

8.  Tyler Bray KCC (65/79/NA)

Undrafted due to maturity problems, Bray projects as a developmental third quarterback on the Chiefs.  Bray even went undrafted in the Bray Family Football Dynasty League.

This quarterback draft class is getting depressing and we are still not at the bottom.

9.  Landry Jones PIT (69/80/NA)

Could see time if Ben goes down but does not have the talent to push for the starting position.  He is only a Big Ben hand cuff at best. Not even tradable and shouldn’t be drafted even in 53 man roster leagues.

TIER 4
 
10.  Matt Scott JAC(72/67/NA)

Undrafted in the NFL and should be undrafted in all formats of Fantasy Football, unless you are trying to assemble the entire Jaguars offense.  If that’s the case, don’t forget to take back up FB and former ATL no. 3 quarterback Will Ta’ufo’ou.



Josh Inglis is on the wrong side of 30. He wishes he was 6 inches taller and had hair he could comb.  He writes and operates backtobacksports.com. He currently lives in Taiwan.

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

DYNASTY ROOKIE DRAFT ROUND ONE

Photo courtesy NIKE

Josh Inglis
@B2BSJinglis
Wednesday May 15th, 2013

This Sunday was the start of our Behemoth 52 man roster, 6 round, 12 team, PPR Dynasty rookie Draft on myfantasyleague.com.  This is as competitive as any league out there.  This is the same league where me and my co-manager Brandon Dubreuil  (Manny Ramirez Does Taiwan Blog) picked up Plaxico Burress off the wire, while he was still in the can for shooting himself, in hopes that we could trade him when his sentence was up a year later.  This league is so deep that it took Titus Young getting arrested three times in one week for us to consider dropping him.

The draft is the most important part of the season in terms of building.  If you miss in the first and second rounds, as a rebuilding team, you could be looking at a humiliating long season.  This is the starting line up requirements


  • 1 QB
  • 1-3 RB
  • 3-5 WR
  • 1-2 TE
  • 1 PK
  • For 10 offensive starters
  • 2-3 DL
  • 4-5 LB 1.5 pt tackles 0.75 assist
  • 2-3 CB/S
  • 10 defensive starters 
Here's how the first round of the draft went down


1.01  Austin, Tavon WR STL
GB Dolphins

UPS

Tavon is the best play maker in this year's draft and was the first "skilled" player taken.  Already atop the Rams WR depth chart he should see plenty of looks lining up in multiple positions.  Sam Bradford had a 13/6 TD/INT ratio in the second half of last season including matchups with MIN, NYJ, SEA and two vs. SF. Austin is projected to play the slot but has more talent than Chris Givens and Brian Quick, who play on the outside,  combined.  

DOWNS

With 2 games against Seattle and San Francisco and a 5'8'' 174 ilb frame, durability  is going to be a concern, but his ceiling is too high not to take him with the top pick.  

OTHER OPTIONS: Bell PIT RB, Ball DEN RB, Bernard CIN RB, Hopkins HOU WR

2013 Projected Stats from fantasysharks.com

80/1150/7

AJ Green's Rookie stats 65/1057/7





1.02  Ball, Montee RB DEN
LA Raiders

UPS

This manger was partially obligated to take Ball as he is already the owner of other DEN RBs Hillman and Moreno.  Owning all players in a team's running game is a smart move and with so much bench depth in this league it makes the most sense.  With what seems like a crowded group of RBs in Denver, Ball has the most upside to emerge as the starter.  John Elway has already compared his running style to that of Denver great and 2000 yard rusher Terrell Davis.  This is a man who can handle 3 downs, and with the Denver Post reporting that the team is going to release either Moreno or McGahee it looks like it might be Ball's job come week 1.  

DOWNS

Ball had 983 touches in College so the 22 year old has some ware and might not project to be a 3 down RB after the age of 26 after the 2000 touch mark.

OTHER OPTIONS:  Bell, Patterson MIN WR, Bernard

2013 Projected Stats from fantasysharks.com

225 att/1050/9 
25 rec /200/ 1 



1.03  Bell, Le' Veon RB PIT
Taoyuan Titans

UPS

This was my teams pick.  Our rankings were Austin, Bell and Ball in that order.  Words like, passing game, healthy track record, workhorse and 30 times a game excite me as an owner.   Bell sits at 6'1'' and 244 ilbs.  Look for Bell to ware down defenses late in games, especially if the Steelers are leading.

DOWNS

Lacks explosiveness and lateral movement but at 244 ilbs and his ability to move piles who cares.  

OTHER OPTIONS: none

2013 Projected Stats from fantasysharks.com

250 att/ 1100 / 8
30 rec / 215 / 1






1.04  Bernard, Giovani RB CIN
Colpitts Chargers

UPS

Before this pick, this team's best running back was Shonn Green.  Needless to say, this team was looking for a legitimate RB.  Projected as a RBBC with BJGE, he has been working on his passing game at rookie camp.  He projects to rush the ball 8 to 10 times a game while being heavily involved in the passing game.  Bernard is an elite athlete who can take it to the house if given space.  Even in redrafts this is the RB in CIN that I would target.

DOWNS

Most likely will only contribute on less than a dozen carries a game and will likely cede goal line carries to Green-Ellis.  Most likely a third down back in his rookie season but holds much more value in PPR

OTHER OPTIONS: Eddie Lacy GB RB

2013 Projected Stats from fantasysharks.com

125 att / 600 / 2
45 rec / 315 / 2





1.05  Hopkins, DeAndre WR HOU
Taipei Packers
pick 1.05 and a 2014 4th round pick were traded by the Taoyuan Titans to the Taipei Packers for 1.09 and KJ Wright LB SEA

UPS

Hopkins averaged 17.1 yards per catch at Clemson in 2012 while crossing the goal line 18 times.  He immediately moves into the starting Z WR role for the Texans who finally have a legitimate WR 2 opposite Andre Johnson.  When your coach says things like "special" and "He's going to help us out early" and then refers you to as 8 time 1000 yard receiver Rod Smith, it's a promising thing.  He has so far dominated rookie mini camp, apparently he "caught seemingly everything thrown his way" and made at least one highlight-reel catch on all three days of practice.

DOWNS

Hopkins will not be the first option in the passing game for a run heavy offense.

OTHER OPTIONS: Patterson, Lacy, Woods BUF WR 

2013 Projected Stats from fantasysharks.com

60/775/7




1.06  Patterson, Cordarrelle WR MIN
Bouctouche Buccaneers

UPS

From Scouts inc.

"[E]xtremely raw as a receiver in terms of route-running and reading coverages on the fly. There are questions about how much of an offense he can absorb right away, and his hands have been inconsistent on tape. He can immediately make an impact as a return man, and if the Vikings can find creative ways to get him touches, Patterson can still make a difference as he develops as a receiver."

It seems after the vikings missed on Tavon Austin, they tried for something similar but not nearly as talented as Austin.  Last year they ran their passing game through Percy Harvin, who is now in Seattle and it looks like they are going to keep the same game plan and hopefully Patterson can fill Harvin's shoes. Expect the Vikes to find ways to get him the ball through quick slants and bubble screens.  Should have no problem surpassing helmet filler and current X receiver Jerome Simpson.

DOWNS

Corderrelle is a work in progress and might only start in 3 WR sets to begin the season.  His lack of route running skills may make it difficult for him to get the ball down field.  Also, he will be behind Greg Jennings in the WR pecking order and his QB is named Christian Ponder.  He'll need to work on his game if he doesn't want to be anything other than a return man and minor contributor in the passing game.

OTHER OPTIONS: Dobson WR NE, Wheaton WR PIT, Eifert CIN TE, Lacy, Hunter  TEN WR, EJ Manuel BUF QB

2013 Projected Stats from fantasysharks.com

60/775/6



1.07 Lacy, Eddie RB GBP
Van City 9'ers

UPS

Being the projected starting running back for a Green Bay team that scored 27.1 points a game in 2012 will have its advantages.  This is also the same Packers team that wasn't afraid to give 30 year old Cedric Benson 20 touches a game.  Lacy will be in charge of winding the clock down late in games.  Maybe with the emergence of a running game, Aaron Rodgers doesn't have to get sacked 51 times this year.  Lacy is a good candidate to lead all rookies in rushing TDs.

DOWNS

Where to start? The fused big toe? The hamstring problem that flared up pre-draft?  Apparently Lacy is a tough individual, but with so many pro teams staying away from Lacy on draft day and with the packers selecting Johnathan Franklin 2 rounds later, it makes one wonder how much faith the Packers have in him long term.  

OTHER OPTIONS: Dobson WR NE, Wheaton WR PIT, Eifert, Hunter, Franklin, Manuel,  Stacy STL RB, Lattimore SF RB, Michael SEA RB, Geno Smith NYJ QB

2013 Projected Stats from fantasysharks.com

200 att/925/7
20 rec/175/1




1.08  Brown, Arthur LB BAL
Bouctouche Buccaneers

UPS

Is being compared to 100 tackle machine Novarro Bowman and is now the replacement of future hall of famer Ray Lewis.  Brown is a very safe pick here.  Look for something between Lavonte David's and Luke Kuechly's rookie campaigns.  100 total tackles is almost guaranteed in the middle of the Ravens' defense this year that will be without Middle linebackers Ray Lewis and Dannell Ellerbe.

DOWNS

Maybe the owner missed out on some first round offensive talent but with a strong group of starters this pick will return a safe and profitable return.

OTHER OPTIONS: Manuel, Smith, Dobson WR NE, Wheaton WR PIT, Eifert, Hunter, Franklin, Stacy STL RB, Lattimore SF RB

2013 Projected Stats from fantasysharks.com

88 TKL 38 Assist




1.09  Eifert, Tyler TE CIN
Taoyuan Titans

UPS

At 6'6'' 250 ilbs and the ability to line up as TE or push out to the slot makes Eifert one of the more intriguing picks in the first round.  We traded down from 1.05 to 1.09 because we had targeted the ND product and thought 1.05 was too early and we rolled the dice to get him later in the round.  Eifert might not produce immediately, but when Cincinnati realizes that Jermaine Gresham isn't the answer, they will quickly turn to the number 21 pick in this year's draft.  With having to deal with double teams continuously over his Junior, and final season at Notre Dame, stepping onto a field where 99.98 % of the defense's attention is on AJ Green, will only help him achieve great things.  Very excited for this pick 

DOWNS 

Production might not come in year one but we have lots of depth at the position, and the ability to wait on Eiferts' special talents to mature.

OTHER OPTIONS: Dobson, Wheaton

2013 Projected Stats from fantasysharks.com

40/440/3




1.10  Hunter, Justin WR TEN
Abbotsford Seahawks

UPS

With a potential 3 receiver set of Kenny Britt (if healthy), Kendall Wright and Hunter the Titans passing game looks to be impressive on paper.  Current QB Jake Locker is going to have to improve his game dramatically in order for this talented corps to be successful.  Hunter was a beast in the combine posting a 4.44 40 time, a 39.4 inch vertical and the longest broad jump by any other receiver at 11'4''.

DOWNS

Hunter is a a 6'4'' beast but only tips the scales at 196 ilbs. He is going to need to beef up if he wants to play with the physical style that the Titans have envisioned for him.  His QB, Jake Locker, went  7 TD / 9 INT in his final 7 games of the 2012 season and average just under 200 yards per game in that span.  If Locker can't get him the ball, it could be a tough few years for Hunter owners.

OTHER OPTIONS: Dobson, Wheaton , Franklin, Stacy, Lattimore, Manuel, Smith


2013 Projected Stats from fantasysharks.com

40/550/3



1.11 Woods, Robert WR BUF
Taipei Packers

UPS

Considered the starting WR opposite Stevie Johnson, the USC product is already working with projected starting QB EJ Manual at rookie minicamp.  "Chemistry, I think we started off pretty good," he said. "He's already a good friend, but out here we're just working now, getting it done on the field. I think we had a good start."  Woods has already caught passes from new Eagles QB Matt Barkley in USC's pro style offense.  Playing on the other side of the field as USC WR and Heisman candidate Marqise Lee, Woods knows how to share a workload and run routes properly in order to get the rock.   Look for Doug Marrone's offense to resemble that of the of K-Gun offense that former Bills and current Hall of Fame QB Jim Kelly use to run.


DOWNS


Quarterback problems and being 2nd read behind Stevie Johnson is the only thing slowing Woods down who posted 111 catches for 1,292 yards and 15 scores as a sophomore. I have Woods ranked as the third best WR behind Tavon Austin and DeAndre Hopkins. The Taipei Packers have some serious young WR talent.

OTHER OPTIONS: Allen, Wheaton, Franklin, Manuel, Smith

2013 Projected Stats from fantasysharks.com

50/700/3



1.12  Allen, Keenan WR SDC
Abbotsford Seahawks

UPS

Allen set Cal's all-time reception record with 205 career catches after only three seasons.  He fell in the draft due to the PCL tear that cut his Junior season short.  Now fully recovered and participating in rookie minicamp, Allen is looking to land the WR position opposite human band aid Danario Alexander.  If Allen can fully recover, look for him to find starting minutes at some point throughout the year as his competition includes 2012 absentee Vincent Brown and 32 year old Malcom Floyd

DOWNS

A slow recovery from the PCL tear has some people worried about his immediate contribution.  But with his attendance at rookie camp he could prove the teams that over looked him on draft day wrong.

OTHER OPTIONS: Dobson, Lattimore, Franklin, Wheaton, Williams DAL WR, Michael, Stacy, Manuel, Smith

2013 Projected Stats from fantasysharks.com

50/650/2




Check out rounds 2 through 6 here

Wednesday, May 8, 2013

TITUS YOUNG GOES BACK TO BACK

Photo courtesy of  businessinsider.com

Josh Inglis
@B2BSJinglis
Thursday May 9th, 2013



Over the past weekend, former Detroit Lion and 10 day St. Louis Ram receiver Titus Young was arrested TWICE on charges of suspicion of driving under the influence and later burglary, according to Riverside County, California, authorities.

TY was pulled over at 12:01 am Sunday morning for an illegal left hand turn which led to his arrest for suspicion of driving under the influence. He was later released but not finished committing crimes.  

Apparently, later that afternoon, Young was upset with his Black Mustang being impounded that he did what only TY, a former second round NFL pick, thought was right.  He scaled the fence of the tow yard (in the bright sunlight of the California sun) to claim what was rightfully his. Unfortunately for the free agent, someone saw him doing this and contacted the police who showed up promptly to arrest the former Boise State star.

For his Batman like antics, Young was arrested for burglary at the same detention center where he was previously arrested only 15 hours earlier.

Now as humorous as this is, we should agree that this man needs some serious help.  We live in a world where everyone is rooting for people like Titus to fail at every corner they take.  It's in our nature to cheer for the demise of the troubled.  But maybe, just this time, we should cross our fingers and hope for a turn around in a life that had (has) so much talent. 

Still only 23 years old, TY has his whole life ahead of him to correct his mistakes and get his shit together.  Titus has had to re-invent himself twice already over his short career.  Once as a trouble high school student and more recently after Boise State had suspended him indefinitely from all team activities for his poor attitude.

However, if the bet was "How many more time will Titus Young be arrested (+0.5)" my money would be on the over. Just saying.

Here is a Chronological list of some TY moments


  • In the ninth grade in High school Titus received a lengthy suspension from school
  • Changed his attitude and became a California All State student athlete
  • Recruited by Boise State in 2007
  • Suspended indefinitely from all team activities in 2008
  • Returned the following year as a Junior
  • Set Boise States single season receiving yardage record as a Senior with 1215 yards
  • Holds the all time school record for career receiving yards with 3063 and career TDs with 25
  • was the 44th player picked in the 2011 NFL draft by the Detroit lions
  • In May 2012 the Lions sent Young home for sucker punching then teammate Louis Delmas at an offseason workout. 
  • In November 2012 Young was sent home again for conduct that was detrimental to the team. He intentionally lined up out of position twice.
  • Was later told to stay away from the teams facilities.
  • Put on Injured Reserve December 5th ending his season and career as a lion.
  • Feb 5 2013, Young was claimed off waivers by the St. Louis Rams as they were the only club that a put a waiver claim in for the receiver.
  • 10 days later TY was released by the Rams without ever playing one snap.   
Check out a fantastic article about Titus young by Michael Sudds on Bleacher Report HERE


Josh Inglis is man not over the age of 30 who teaches children about fruits, months and other indispensable nuggets of information.  He sometimes watches sports and usually nobody will listen to him when he tries to express his point of view.  He currently lives in Taiwan



references
BLEACHER REPORT
ESPN
SPORTS-REFERENCE

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

What Would Al Davis Do?



Article idea by Jake Cousineau


The first round of the 2013 NFL draft is upon us, and for the second straight year, arguably the most famous of all NFL GMs will not be making the trip to Radio City Music Hall in New York.

Allen Davis passed away Oct 8, 2011 from heart failure at his home in Oakland and and in doing so has left a void in every NFL fan and follower.  Love or hate Al Davis you can't deny that he was the most well known owner in the league if not in all of professional sports in North America.  He went from coordinator to head coach and GM to AFL commissioner to head of football operations to eventually ownership.


 Three superbowl wins, and 4 AFC championships proves as evidence as Al's legacy.  However, due to recent drafts (2007), a number of high draft pick busts (JaMarcus, Rolando) and his final move, a questionable 3rd round supplemental  draft pick on Terrelle Pryor it had  left Al as a punch line come draft day.







Now I am not here to judge a man who gave 60 years of his life to better a sport or on his ability to evaluate talent, (he did trade a coach, John Gruden, for two 1st round picks, two second round picks and $8 million in cash and then proceeded to make the superbowl the following season however eventually losing to the coach he had traded away)  I'm just making the point that when the Oakland Raiders were on the clock during the first day it might have been the most exciting part of the draft just due to absolute uncertainty alone.


With many teams' picks already known or specific to 2 or 3 players, having Al and his passion for forty times is a sight that is surely missed. However, with his brother Jerry still writing the names on the cards there still may be a little unexpectedness  left in the organization.  Having four top 100 picks and ten picks in total in the draft there is plenty of opportunity for surprise.


The man who has been trying to fill Al Davis' shoes is 2nd year GM Reggie Mckenzie. Mckenzie's first draft as the Raiders' GM was 2012.  In that year the silver and black's first pick wasn't until the 3rd round where he drafted Utah guard Tony Bergstrom with the 95th overall pick.  


In Al Davis fashion here is a look at the fastest 40 times from the combine.



4.27 Marquise Goodwin, Texas wide receiver
4.34 Tavon Austin, West Virginia wide receiver
*4.34 Onterio McCalebb, Auburn running back
4.34 Ryan Swope, Texas A&M wide receiver
4.36 Darius Slay, Mississippi State cornerback
4.37 Knile Davis, Arkansas running back
4.37 Dee Milliner, Alabama cornerback
4.38 Josh Boyce, Texas Christian wide receiver
4.38 Kenny Stills, Oklahoma wide receiver
4.38 Desmond Trufant, Washington cornerback
4.39 Robert Alford, Southeastern Louisiana cornerback
4.39 Jamar Taylor, Boise State cornerback
4.40 Brandon McGee, Miami cornerback
4.41 Sanders Commings, Georgia cornerback
4.41 Kayvon Webster, South Florida cornerback

My In Memory of Al pick
4.43 Denard Robinson, Michigan Wide Receiver 

*Onterio ran an unofficial time 4.21 which would have been a forty time record had it stood