Friday, May 24, 2013

2013 NFL ROOKIE RUNNING BACK RANKINGS

photo credit: isportsweb.com


Josh Inglis
Thursday, May 23rd 2013
@B2BSJinglis


26 Running backs were chosen this year at the 2013 NFL draft. The difference between the first player selected (Giovani Bernard 37th) and the last player (Michael Cox 253rd) is very obvious. Bernard is expected to be in a time share for Cincinnati this year and he projects to take over in 2014 and Cox projects to be a practice squad attendee.  There are chances, all be them small ones,  to find fantasy production even in the later rounds of the draft.  Just because you don't have a top pick doesn't mean you can't find a running back that will give you a top 24 return.

In 2012 Alfred Morris was taken in the 6th round by the Redskins. Then back track all the way to 2007 and Ahmad Bradshaw was the last running back taken at pick 250.

Alright I am going to confess something to you.  I thought I would have been able to find more talented running backs that were drafted late to help prove my point but I seem to have been mistaken. That blew up in my face somewhat and I am too proud to delete those last sentences.  So let's change our point of view here.

Take two.

It's important to hit on the talented backs that were drafted in the early and mid-rounds in order to add to your fantasy roster.  Yes,  I am aware that Arian Foster was undrafted but if your plan is to find the next Foster well that's just wishful thinking.

The theme in this year's draft seems to be that the more talented runners have landed in crowded back fields while the mediocre talents have an easier chance at getting the ball. The rankings are based on how I would choose my players in a rookie only draft.   Read it, dissect it, argue it or forget about it. It's your choice.

Rookie Quarterback Rankings HERE

*the numbers inside the parenthesis represent the players' current ADP (Average Draft Position)

(rookie draft ADP/ Dynasty Start Up ADP/ Redraft ADP)



TIER 1
 
1. Le’Veon Bell PIT (4.9/15.7/111)

Bell might not be the most talented back in this year's draft class, but his situation couldn't be more ideal for his owners. The 6'1'' 244 ilbs bowling ball from Michigan State has already been praised by Steelers' OC Todd Haley,  "..He looks like a workhorse back. He's not a guy that you'd shy away from giving it to him 30 times a game"

It's not too often you can draft a guaranteed three down back in today's NFL but the Steelers' second round pick in 2013 is the exception.  Bell has sticky hands for a man of his size.  He caught 67 balls for 434 yards in his final two years at Michigan State.  He isn't going to put up Doug Martin numbers in year one but he shouldn't have a problem totaling 1400 yards and scoring 8 to 10 times.

There isn't a safer pick at the running back position in this draft. I like Bell as a legit RB2 this year with the chance of punching into the top 12 for 2014.  With a great opportunity, an offensive system that suits his physical traits and having a coaching staff that is confident in his ability to lead the Steelers' running game, Le'Veon Bell is my number one running back in rookie drafts.
 
2. Giovani Bernard CIN (4.4/14/80)

Bernard may be in a complementary role in his first season in Cincinnati, but he has far more talent and athleticism than Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis.  However, being fed a "steady amount of screen passes" in rookie minicamp the Bengals want to get the UNC draft pick in open space and let him use his elite skills to create plays.

Bernard will most likely cede goal line carries as long as the Lawfirm is in the picture but should push him for the majority of the carries at some point in 2013.  It's very probable that this time next year we could be arguing who is a better RB1, Giovani Bernard or Matt Forte. 

If you are an owner of BJGE and have a top 3 pick, let's hope you can land Bernard.  The 37th pick in 2013 should be the man in Cincinnati for the next 5 years and if you want to own a piece of Giovani I suggest you buy him now before he impresses the fantasy community too much and it costs you more than a first rounder in order to land him. 
 
3. Montee Ball DEN (5.4/ 15.9/96)

With the possibility of starting week one for an extremely talented Bronco's offense, Ball's price is well worth it.  At first look the Denver backfield looks crowded,  but the Denver Post is reporting that the Bronco's will most likely release Willis McGahee due to his age and cost.  This move will create the opportunity to have Ball as the lead back and Ronnie Hillman as the change of pace runner.

Head coach John Fox has a reputation for not trusting rookies with the ball, but with the Wisconsin workhorse only fumbling twice in 924 college carries and being able to pass protect, Montee Ball is far ahead of most NFL rookie running backs in terms of pro readiness. He also holds the record for most all purpose touchdowns in the NCAA.

Ball is a high upside RB2 in all formats, but I can't blame an owner for drafting, Lacy, Bell or Bernard due to Ball's high mileage (almost 1000 college carries).
 
4. Eddie Lacy GB (4.8/15 /62)

Viewed by many as the top back in this year's draft, Lacy fell to the end of the second round due to the fact that teams were worried about his injury history and that he has a "fused" big toe.  Lacy is looking to prove the doubters wrong this year as he will be handed the keys to the back field in Green Bay. 

Green Bay scored the 5th most points in the NFL in 2012 while only averaging 106 rushing yards a game, good for 20th in the league. Lacy should have no problem staying in front of fellow rookie Johnathan Franklin and DuJuan Harris and is a good bet to reach 1000 yards on the ground and find the end zone possibly 8-12 times.

Lacy will be a great RB2 in year one. He is currently coming off the board as RB24 in redrafts and is being drafted, on average, as the 10th running back in dynasty start ups. Needless to say, many others also see Lacy as a future RB1. Owners of the 61st overall pick should check in on the prices of Franklin and Harris throughout the year.  If Lacy is dominating touches early in the year maybe offering a Franklin owner a 3rd round and/or a late pick for Harris is  a good idea.  I would be very happy owning the backfield of an offense as potent as Green Bay's.

TIER 2

5. Zac Stacy STL (19/35/153)

Now that Steven Jackson has departed St Louis, the running back picture has become quite murky. At the top of the ugliness are second year players Isiah Pead and Daryl Richardson. Pead has only 10 professional carries to his name and Richardson averaged 4.8 YPC on 98 carries in 2012. With only two years of NFL experience between the three players expect the back that does the best in pass protection to carve out the larger role.

Having already played in the SEC, the most difficult division in the NCAA, scouts have said that Stacy has Trent Richardson (5'11'' 224 ilbs) power in his "petit" 5'8'' 210 ilbs frame (check out that French masculine noun conjugation). He led the SEC in YPC in 2011 (5.94) ahead of Trent Richardson, Vick Ballard and Marcus Lattimore. The 160th overall pick in this year's draft is a tackle braking machine that has great vision but also has the strength to move piles. He has a real chance to be the Rams' starter at some point this year and should be a solid fantasy option in years ahead. Stacy should be a decent RB2 in 2014 with the young Rams' offense beginning to establish an identity.

6. Johnathan Franklin GB (13.8/27.3 /138)

One of the more talked about backs in this tier, Franklin could be fantasy gold or just an Eddie Lacy back up depending on who you ask. The ideal situation would be to get both of these backs, but with their ADPs in rookie drafts too near each other it looks like the only way you could accomplish that would be through a trade.

Franklin doesn't project to be an every down runner but could earn the third down role in Green Bay. He might also be the primary return man as Randall Cobb concentrates on his receiving duties.

With so many targets in the Packers' passing game and a world class quarterback don't expect Franklin to be checked down to as often as other 3rd down running backs. An easy comparison would be to Atlanta's Jacquizz Rodgers. For me, however,  the inconsistencies of a pass catching running back are too much too handle, even in PPR formats.

Lacy won't fall out of the top 7 picks and Franklin shouldn't drop out of the top 15 picks.  Honestly I would rather have Lacy at 7 than Franklin at 15. I'd prefer Zac Stacy over  Franklin but I sometimes drink too much. If Lacy is injured at all this year you should be able to trade the former Bruin for a high first round pick, a top RB2 or a low end WR1.
 
7.  Christine Michael SEA (23/37/179)

Size (5'10''), speed (4.54 forty), elusiveness, power, explosion and said to have the most talent at the running back position in this year's draft, Christine Michael is a very popular "sleeper" pick. If, it wasn't for character concerns (he did miss two interviews at the combine due to his NyQuil ingestion) he would have gone higher than the 62nd pick.

You are going to need to have a bench spot reserved for the former Aggie as Michael isn't expected to pass second year man Robert Turbin anytime soon due to the fact he can't hold his own in pass protection. If you have room on your bench to roster the Texas A&M star for the 2013 season, than the rewards for 2014 could be astronomical. He could absolutely dominate at the NFL level but he is going to have to work hard, stay out of trouble and wait patiently for his chance.

8. Marcus Lattimore SF (13.2/27.6/154)

Here is a quick rundown on Lattimore's injury history.  He suffered an ACL tear in his left knee in 2011.  He returned in 2012, a few steps slower, only to tear his right ACL, PCL and LCL in what might be the second hardest injury to watch next to Kevin Ware's leg break at the NCAA tournament this year.

Selected by the 49'ers in the 5th round of this year's draft, Lattimore will almost certainly red shirt for the entire year.  This means if you draft him in fantasy you are going to need a bench spot or an IR spot available for the whole season.  With plenty of bodies in the San Fransisco running back depth chart (Gore, Hunter, James and Dixon) the Niners will be able to bring the former Gamecock along as slowly as they please. This situation does not excite me in the least.

My opinion is that an athlete may find it difficult to return to football after almost having their leg separated from his knee joint, let alone compete at the highest level .  Call me crazy but I will not be spending a high draft pick on a player with Lattimores's injury history.

TIER 3
 
9.  Denard Robinson JAC (41/54/203)
*ranked as a WR in most formats

If you saw "shoelace" over his 4 year career at Michigan then you know this man has serious skills. He has 4.43 speed and understands football from a quarterback's point of view. Jacksonville GM Dave Caldwell says the Jaguars intend to give the former Wolverine 10 to 15 touches a game on top of returning duties. The coaching staff is willing to find ways to put the ball in his hands as they have already lined him up in the backfield at running back, as a wide receiver and under center in a wild cat package during rookie minicamp.

With MJD entering a contract year and coming off Lisfranc surgery, the 135th pick in this year's draft looks like Jones' preferred handcuff going into training camp. There is a high ceiling with this choice and with an organization starved for game changing talent Denard Robinson should receive plenty of chances to reward his fantasy owners in year one and beyond.  He is a smart pick in the bottom half of the running back ranks.

10.  Latavius Murray OAK  (48/57/213) 

Sometimes you have to choose opportunity over talent. I'm not saying Murray isn't talented, he did run a 4.38 forty at 6'2'' and 223 ilbs, but the chance to start is worth the prospective add.

I have been on both sides of the Darren Mcfadden argument. I had him in 2010 for the 1600 plus yards from scrimmage and 10 total TDs. I also had him last year where he averaged 18 carries a game for an embarrassing 3.3 YPC over a 12 game span. I will never target him until he proves he can do something to make me forget about the misery. Run DMC has only played in 71.25 % of his games over the course of his 5 year professional career.

With Mcfadden's constant absence, my money is on someone other than him starting at least one game this year for the silver and black. The Raiders' depth chart currently reads:
  1. Darren Mcfadden
  2. Rashad Jennings
  3. Latavius Murray
I'm choosing the rookie Murray to be DMC's primary backup and potential spot starter for year one. Who knows how the season ends up, but with DMC in a contract year anything could happen. The best case scenario for a  Murray owner is that he is starting in Oakland in 2014. You can't make those claims for other running backs being drafted this late.

11.  Andre Ellington ARI (34/48/177)

Although Arizona drafted Ellington 47 picks after Stepfan Taylor its Ellington who holds the most value in fantasy. Ranked as the 3rd highest running back in the draft by rotoworld's Josh Norris, the Clemson product is dangerous in the open field and offers big play ability which can't be said about the other running backs ahead of him on the depth chart.

The Cardinals O-line was the worst in football last year and it doesn't project to be any better this year, but this is a rookie draft and tangibles like O-line strength and depth chart rankings shouldn't be the main reasons why you don't select the most talented player available. Ellington was drafted at 3.05 in my rookie draft between Latavius Murray (3.03) and Joseph Randle (3.08). This is a case of talent over situation. He could see touches this year but it may take until the second half of the season. Keep an eye on him during training camp and throughout the season if he goes undrafted in your league.

12.  Mike Gillislee MIA (37/49/191)

Much like Knile Davis' situation in Kansas City, Gillislee has the chance to be the immediate back up going into training camp.  Daniel Thomas has averaged under 3.6 YPC over a large 256 carry sample size in two disappointing seasons for the fish. Thomas could lose his current backup role with a solid showing in camp by the rookie from Florida. 

With Lamar Miller having only carried the ball 51 times in his professional career, Mike Gillislee deserves a flier pick just based on Miami's uncertainty at the position.  The 164th pick in this year's draft, Gillislee has a better opportunity than most but lacks the overall skill set that will make him a fantasy commodity, but being able to pass protect as a rookie will go a long way in cementing his role as the number two running back for the Dolphins.

I like this pick as a Lamar Miller owner, or as a chance to start building the Miami backfield cheaply. I recently drafted Gillislee in my 53 man Dynasty league with pick 4.03.  Just after Denard Robinson and 7 picks before Knile Davis.  Hopefully Lamar Miller comes out flat and we can buy him on the cheap and monopolize the dolphins' running game.

13.  Joseph Randle DAL (27/45/178)

Already on the shelf due to a recent thumb surgery, Randle is another mediocre talent in a promising opportunity. Owner Jerry Jones expects him to be the primary backup for the brittle DeMarco Murray but with his inability to pass protect and having constantly seen soft defenses while at Oklahoma Ol' Jerry needs to think this one over.

Demarco Murray owners need to invest here but I feel that Randle is going too high to justify the pick. Maybe the Murray owners need to trade with the Randle owners while DeMarco Murray's stock is high (RB13 ADP in redraft)



TIER 4

14.  Stepfan Taylor ARI (40.8/53/181)

Taylor's 4.76 forty timed ranked him 27th or 33 running backs at the combine. Arizona has three other more talented runners on the roster including projected starter Rashard Mendenhall, second year man Ryan Williams and fellow rookie Andre Ellington.  To make matters worse, Arizona's offensive line is projected to be ranked 31st of 32 NFL teams by Evan Silva of rotoworld.

New coach Bruce Arians has already said he "doesn't prefer a running back by committee." and he also added he "likes guys who can play every down". If these things are true it could be very difficult for Taylor to show that he deserves a piece of the backfield pie. Being slow and buried on the depth chart are obvious reasons to look elsewhere. The ceiling is not very high on this pick and when you are choosing talent this late you should be looking for someone with high upside. That isn't Taylor.

15.  Knile Davis KCC (40.6/54.5/193)

This from an NFL scout about Knile Davis after his combine.

"He's so soft and timid. I've never seen a guy fumble like him where people just breathe on him and he drops the ball. Doesn't play to that timed speed at all (4.37). You think injuries have taken their toll, but he can still run fast so it's nothing to do with injury. On the field he just doesn't have it."
Davis also missed the entire 2011 season with a fractured ankle and then only carried the ball 112 times the following season in 2012.

Now for the good news. At 5'10'' 227 ilbs and an unofficial 4.30, the former Arkansas running back measures very well. His situation is more than ideal as he has the chance to be the immediate back up to Jamaal Charles with only herniated Shaun Draughn and 2nd year runner Cyrus Gray to beat out.

Davis has decent value as trade bait to a Charles owner but other than that he doesn't project well in the NFL. Draft him and then trade him before people realize he is only slightly better than Jackie Battle.
 
16.  Chris Thompson WAS (65/61/NA)
 
Projected as a change of pace back at best, the 5'7'' 192 ilbs fourth round draft pick is coming off an October ACL tear that makes his attendance for the start of training camp questionable. Washington Redskins coach  Mike Shanahan thinks Thompson is a first or second round talent but due to his injury, teams decided to pass on the Florida State Graduate. If the ACL tear doesn't scare you, how about a broken back in 2011?  Also he probably needs to beat out 2011 4th round Roy Helu Jr. just to secure a roster spot. Chris Thompson looks like a long shot to produce fantasy numbers in any format.  He currently went undrafted in my 12 team 53 man roster rookie draft.  But hey, Mike Shanahan has made magic happen before.  

17.  Kenjon Barner CAR (50/60/218)
 
The 182nd overall pick taken out of Oregon was added to the Panthers' mess of a backfield.  Both Jonathan Stewert and DeAngelo Williams have restructured their contracts in order to stay on the squad. 

With Wiliams entering his age 30 season and Stewart coming off a miserable and injured 2012, Kenjon Barner projects to be a third down back in the NFL at best.  He sits at 5'9'' and is currently under 200 ilbs. He might not see the field in year one due to depth problems.    

18.  Spencer Ware SEA (56/71/NA)
 
A big man at 5'10'' and 218 ilbs the Seahawks plan to use their sixth-round pick at full back and maybe short yardage.  Ware is buried heavily in the 'Hawks' depth chart.  He is behind Lynch, Turbin and fellow rookie Christine Michael at running back and he is even behind 2011 pro bowler Michael Robinson at full back.

Spencer Ware should not be owned even in NFC-only leagues.


Josh Inglis  teaches young children and has recently just realized that he doesn't have gap power at the plate.  He blogs and operates backtobacksports.com.  He currently lives in Taiwan.


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